Why I’m Buying Oil Again

Last month, I mentioned a few of the demand delusions permeating within global oil markets. 

This isn’t a new phenomenon, mind you. 

Back in June, the IEA released a report stating that growth for the world’s demand for oil would slow to a halt in the coming years. 

More recently, the IEA doubled down on its bearish demand outlook. The Oil Market Report it released in October last month called for global demand growth in 2024 to slow to 900,000 barrels per day. 

According to them, demand destruction has hit emerging markets hard. 

OPEC countered this week, reaffirming its call that demand in China was strong, and chose to pin the blame for weakening crude prices on speculators. 

Just yesterday, it raised its 2034 forecast for oil demand growth to 2.46 million barrels per day. OPEC’s current projections are that global demand will grow next year by 2.2 million barrels per day.

Who’s right, who’s wrong? 

As we sit back and watch WTI crude trading below $78 per barrel, prices have completely wiped out the geopolitical premium that was added since the October 7th attack on Israel. 

Whenever I see this kind of opportunity present itself, there’s a little saying I like to use…

Buy oil now and thank me later.

Well, it’s time to buy oil… again.

The IEA goes bearish on oil prices, then OPEC goes bullish. It’s a yin and yang force that has been present all year.

On the one hand, demand destruction — particularly in China — is no trivial matter. Not only is it the largest of all emerging market economies, but it’s expected to be responsible for an overwhelming amount of the world’s demand growth going forward. 

In some projections, China accounts for approximately 77% of demand growth next year. 

On the other hand, how many times can someone cry wolf over China’s imminent economic collapse before we outright ignore it; that’s what a lot of people — including the IEA — have been predicting for more than a year. 

I say forget the sensationalism, and all the other hyperbolic noise in media headlines. 

Look at what we know, what we can see, and determine what’ll happen next.

There’s a reason why bearish demand forecasts from the IEA are putting more pressure on oil prices today. Right now, we’re heading into the weaker part of the cycle for crude prices. 

For a minute, let’s even forget the huge number of oil tankers that are steaming toward the Gulf Coast to carry U.S. oil abroad. 

Right now, we’re heading into the weakest point of the year for oil demand. Oil prices are supposed to be lower as we head away from the peak of the summer driving season and into the dead of winter, when demand is at its lowest. 

Of course, there’s still a few pesky little things that are being ignored, like the fact that global crude inventories are abysmally low right now, or that the rig count continues to fall, which will hamper U.S. oil output going forward. 

After watching the latest sell-off in oil take place over the last few weeks, it’s hard not to see this for the buying opportunity it is.

Let me show you where to start looking.

Until next time,

Keith Kohl

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A true insider in the technology and energy markets, Keith’s research has helped everyday investors capitalize from the rapid adoption of new technology trends and energy transitions. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the Managing Editor of Energy & Capital, as well as the investment director of Angel Publishing’s Energy Investor and Technology and Opportunity.

For nearly two decades, Keith has been providing in-depth coverage of the hottest investment trends before they go mainstream — from the shale oil and gas boom in the United States to the red-hot EV revolution currently underway. Keith and his readers have banked hundreds of winning trades on the 5G rollout and on key advancements in robotics and AI technology.

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